Evolution AB: Unbreakable Monopoly Crumbling?
Stalled growth, compliance costs and cyberattacks... why is Kenneth Dart Loading?
Evolution AB:
Mighty but Sloppy?
Tangled Empire
Evolution is something else, 40% CAGR for years, 70% live casino market share and studios from Malta to Michigan solidifying a monopoly nobody has come close to breaking. That didn’t sit too well with PlayTech, unleashing BlackCube like hounds to hurt its reputation but it didn’t budge… Domination remains. But sentiment? Cooked. The stock is treated like radioactive waste right now: hated by retail especially since growth has stalled, ignored by institutions and dragged by headlines since 2024.
But behind the scenes you find Dart accumulating like 3,500 SEK is incoming.
Stalled Growth?
Everyone knows this already, but few are talking about why.
The gist of it is that their biggest market Asia has been targeted, nothing new but copycats are essentially infiltrating their IPs while gifting them cyberwarfare in return. In order to protect their longevity they have spent capital to fight these theatrics which has compressed margins…
Europe is flat, no sugarcoating it. It seems Polymarket has briefly taken interest away from Evolution, a real concern of course but how long can casual gamblers tolerate 87.3% chance of losing before they crawl back to spinning Crazy Time?
However the real story is that Evolution refuses to operate in the shady black markets unlike the rest of iGaming. Instead they have spent money to build regulated and expandable markets. Which has burnt margins in the short-term but bootstraps multipliers long-term. They basically REWROTE the regulatory blueprint for markets that used to be lawless. So listen guys don’t mistake compliance for stagnation!
Evolution is the king for a reason.
Growth 2.O
I’ve said this before: the second wave is coming.
iGaming is still early globally. Penetration is low and the addressable market is enormous. Live declining relative to RNG doesn’t mean demand is collapsing, it just shows you where the cyberattacks hit hardest in my opinion.
And in the background?
North America is quietly compounding.
Latin America is starting to bubble.
New studios in Brazil and Argentina don’t happen if the business is dying.
Forward P/E 12 for a global monopoly with expansion optionality across half the world? LOL that multiple prices in terminal decline.
Forget the fundamentals! Bad companies don’t expand. Unscalable businesses don’t build new studios… ↓
Evolution is doing both.
Sloppy Management & Controversy
The company’s recent execution HAS fallen short compared to its historic standard.
When Q1 disappointed many shareholders felt as if the management blamed external factors instead of taking accountability whether it was the georgian strikes or direction.
I think the biggest let-down was the “inaction” regarding the cyberattacks in Asia, perhaps it was just a poorly written report but the message literally just said:
“yeah bro dealing with cybercrime brb”
Market dislikes inexactness and investors want assurance but personally I think you are a fool if you are expecting promises when it comes to this industry.
Having been CEO for over 9 years!! Martin Carlesund built a reputation on silent execution, rarely over-explaining just overall = relentless. Only when Playtech came after them did he break character:
“We will deploy whatever time, effort and money necessary to defend our firm”
»Stock Invader Translation«: PlayTech is finished!
I still trust the management and Carlesund despite the short-term uncertainty. The controversy on the other hand might be fair. During the Q1 miss they said they prioritized growth and not margins and now when their margins are continuing to suffer they are prioritizing margins???
Basically it’s not making sense and what people were quick to call out were the lay-offs because of that — and its true. Evolution has fired 600 of their employees, but c’mon guys its like nothing compared to average finance with the AI carnage going on.
Kenneth Dart Enigma
Here’s where it gets strange…
With cyberattacks ongoing, margins squeezed, sentiment annihilated the mysterious Dart is accumulating shares with no clear pattern.
He now controls 25%+ (47.87M direct + 4.15M via swap), up from 20.53% in August.
He is already quite rich, so why dollar-cost average into this slowly over two years instead of just sending it?
Either he knows it’s a steal and aims to buy it out for a lowball 950 SEK per share offer that nobody wants or he is aligning himself for a better future opportunity idk.
But make no mistake: this isn’t passive. This is intentional!
Once he crosses 30%, Swedish law forces a mandatory takeover bid for all remaining shares.
Dad tried calling Mr.Dart to know the gameplan. No answer yet.
My Move?
You guys already know…
Evolution is 23% of the portfolio at the moment — And it’s not like the other positions in my portfolio.
It’s a straight up hostage situation, only allowed to leave after 2,200SEK stock price hits → aiming for 3,500SEK/share.
I added a little on the recent dip (average price now somewhere in the 960SEK zone), I’ll continue doing so but right now I’m waiting for 1-3 things:
UKGC investigation outcome (UK Gambling Commission drama…)
Q4 earnings (Feb 5th)
One real catalyst (either Asia stabilizes, Dart crosses 30 % or something?)
Bag held, no sales and zero panic.
That said if Dart wants to buy my shares at 3,500SEK he knows where to find me. Dad says 4,000SEK.
Refusing to sell Evolution unless Martin Carlesund personally comes to my house and begs!!!
🛰 Signal LOST: End of transmission — INVADER out… 🚀
Disclaimer: This post is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It reflects personal opinions and is not intended as financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.