Obesity War Entering Full Effect
Bzttt…
Just got off the phone with Mike Doustdar. It was clear as day: It’s war. And it has only just begun. Oral Wegovy won a necessary battle; being first, a slight advantage but a temporary one.
The market narrative is clear: A single win isn’t enough, they need to keep winning. Unless they can prove they’re capable of that? The 4–5x outcome I’m underwriting is just as real as a ghost story.
Here is the 3-step plan for Novo Nordisk’s retribution.
War of Attrition
As Cagrisema flopped against Zepbound, Eli Lilly got the PR approval but the media forgot about the rules of combat. This isn’t Novo’s first battle and this time management knows what has to be done. Time to stop playing fair.
15mg of Lilly’s oral Orforglipron proved more effective? Okay. Let’s rev it up!
Oral Wegovy 2.4mg → 7.2mg → 25mg.
Orforglipron 12.4% vs Wegovy 16.6% = Weight loss
The results speak for themselves… While Novo isn’t the only one playing in the obesity race anymore, they remain a lethal adversary.
Oral Wegovy 25 mg led to greater weight loss than Orforglipron 36 mg in an indirect comparison of OASIS 4 and ATTAIN-1 trials.
Orforglipron 36 mg had ~14x higher odds of discontinuation due to GI side effects.
In a preference study, 84% of patients favored a profile like Oral Wegovy over Orforglipron.
When Mike unleashed Oral Wegovy, he made sure the world would feel its raw impact. Today, over 70,000 U.S. pharmacies have their shelves stacked with the Wegovy pill and this time? The rollout is on a global scale.
Doustdar even told me he’d found Atlantis and is planning to hook them up…
The MOAT of Accessibility
Remember the Hims debacle? Instead of suing them into oblivion, NVO 0.00%↑ is harnessing their reach to solidify its status as the ultimate kingpin.
The oral pill already makes the injectables look like ancient relics. And being first to the market builds the advantage of time, building trust and convenience to make a subscription model feel natural.
Sure, Hims offers both Novo and Lilly products now. But by the time Lilly arrives with a scaled oral solution, Novo has already:
Saturated the distribution giants.
Hard-coded unique dosages and specific regimens into the platforms.
Locked in the patient base.
When Eli Lilly finally shows up, they’ll find the gates closed and the seats taken. The war of attrition won’t just be over, it will have hopefully been won by Novo Nordisk.
The Self-Immolation Play
Now the bears have their eyes glued at the patent expiry in India and China. But don’t worry, the play here is simple: Economic Masochism.
Mike is cutting prices and thinning margins so aggressively that generics won’t even bother to compete. And by initiating these subscription models they’re keeping the competition at bay.
Additionally demolishing the price floor in emerging markets will de-incentivize the entire venture capital ecosystem from ever wanting to fund a "Novo-Killer" ever again.
Because if there’s no gold to be mined, why even dig at all?
And that’s not all, remember my previous post?
The market still thinks Lilly has won because their selective (AMY1) is cleaner than Novo’s dual-agonist approach.
But until LLY 0.00%↑figures out how to miniaturize their peptides? This isn’t over.
In fact the setup is built in NVO 0.00%↑ favor. Thanks to their SNAC technology the next-gen obesity meds will be available orally and accessible to all of their subscribers…
What is Lilly going to do? Make the injectable that you die on?
Wonder Drug Machine to Platform Power
If this WAR STRATEGY works and Novo Nordisk holds their share while scaling subscriptions, then keeping this at ~10x P/E would indicate there being some dark magic at play here…
The subscriptions change the game entirely. A shift from one-off drug sales to a tiered, recurring revenue platform, the exact kind of thing that earns Netflix-like multiples.
So if NVO 0.00%↑ delivers? Then a multiple of 16x becomes the bare minimum in my opinion, and with some solid execution 25x isn’t completely out of the question…
My Move?
This is not complete propaganda, this is the plan.
I know I’m a meme at this point, but I’m not wrong about NVO 0.00%↑ yet.
Dad is still upset but when I asked him about the state of NVO 0.00%↑ all he had to say was:
Let’s see if Mike the Sike is actually man enough for the job.
That’s the trillion dollar question.
I still have 8% in NVO 0.00%↑ — it’s one of my core bets for the future.
They possess the technological edge with SNAC.
The global scale.
And the means of manufacturing.
As I said previously, LLY 0.00%↑ needs a miracle to make their peptides smaller and now disrupt the NVO 0.00%↑ subscriptions.
TRUTH NUKE
🛰 Signal LOST: End of transmission — INVADER out… 🧙♂️💥
Disclaimer: This post is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It reflects personal opinions and is not intended as financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Nice post, I am with you on this one
always fun to read your analysis
keep with the good work
and as for Novo, agree ... but time will tell.
pus there is the dividend that is not that shaby