Evolution AB: The Seized Monopoly
Carlesund better defend 3,000 SEK | My dad says fake news
Evolution AB:
Kenneth Dart’s Hostile Takeover…
Guess Who Was Right?
It’s actually about time I was right about something. “Never wrong” was getting cringe. Cringe as hell. But first things first: A big round of applause for every Evolution investor still with us to this day!
The sheer patience, will and determination required to hold this stock is something that simply can’t be taught. Only learned. And we learned.
With that being said... What really happened here?
The Company Nobody Wanted?
I bought into Evolution back in 2024, and just like every other beginner investor, I was looking for rock-solid fundamentals.
Being Swedish might have helped, but Evolution AB was simply unmatched: a 66% EBITDA margin, practically a live-casino monopoly and zero debt. It felt like only a matter of time.
The great 2021 supercycle created surreal valuations for pretty much every growth stock on the block, pushing EVO to an all-time high of nearly 1,700 SEK. So when I bought 3 years later at 1,100 SEK, it felt like a gift!
So naturally I took charge. But I quickly learned about the stigma surrounding this stock. The pure disdain for iGaming seemed never-ending. Bad news hurt, good news hurt a bit less and no news at all was devastating.
The stock kept declining with a few brief relief rallies along the way followed by sharper dips again.
The Mean Seasons
The only thing that could move the needle was unfalsifiable, undeniable fundamentals. But somehow, top-line growth started faltering and sentiment completely evaporated? Then Kenneth Dart showed up.
The first time I heard his name during the fall of 2024, I didn’t really think of it much. But by December of that year, Candle Lake Ltd had already swallowed 10% of the entire company. We now had this high-margin cash-printing machine with a notorious “big bad” investor controlling a tenth of it.
What did he want?
The spring that followed was boring. Cyberattacks in Asia and ringfencing in Europe. With the AI trade taking over global markets all the while EVO remained stuck in this perpetual limbo. Then came a wave of operational noise:
Global expansion. Playtech smear campaigns. Ongoing buybacks. With continuous, stochastic accumulation from Mr. Dart (25% by late 2025).
Worst of all? Fundamentals were frozen, stock price gridlocked between 500 and 800 SEK. So Evolution was nearing a point where how it chose to conduct itself would determine its identity and management chose silence.
Trials and Tribulations…
The early months of 2026 were undeniably the hardest. Evolution has always been a durable business, but predicting its future trajectory was now getting rough.
After a vague Q4, all we got was pure radio silence. My dad was considering a lawsuit based on faulty business acumen but then peak confusion suddenly hit:
Cancelled dividends in March → A €2 billion share buyback program in May alongside an already aggressive buyback strategy, Playtech drama and Dart gaining over 30% in June.
And now Kenneth Dart has sprung the trap, crossing the 30% threshold that under Swedish law forces him to either make a bid for the entire company or reduce his stake below 30%. Will he look like the fool and sell? I doubt it.
Dart’s Takeover Playbook
I think I finally know what game he’s been playing…
He might get away with it… But it doesn’t make any sense.
So there is a chance that the bid is actually closer to: ~1,000 SEK.
Let’s Rewind.
Back in 2023 there were roughly 212M shares outstanding at ~1,300 SEK.
That’s a Market cap of 275.6 billion SEK.
Since then there have been 4 massive waves of buybacks:
2023: ~1M
2024: 4,476,000
2025: 7,255,000
2026: 3,754,000
= 16,485,000 shares bought back. (According to Cision)1
Total Shares Outstanding = 199,226,613
Of which the company itself currently holds ≈ 7.7 million in treasury.
Meaning Dart only has to bid for the remainder of the public float…
199M shares - 7.7M (Treasury) - 59,798,619 (Dart) = 131M shares. 2
At the pathetic legal floor of 700 SEK/share would cost him 92 billion SEK.
The Silent Squeeze Endgame
That’s just ridiculous.
I’m not denying the billions Dart has already spent accumlating 30%…
But if Candle Lake Ltd buys the remaining shareholder for 1,000 SEK per share, Kenneth Dart would only need ~131.5 billion SEK.
Which is still HALF of what the company was valued in 2023 (275.6 billion).
Furthermore, unless this gets sold at 1,000 SEK management has been shooting themselves in the foot this whole time… Carlesund owns 784,710 shares + 350,000 warrants (871-1,297 SEK strikes)3.
It’s in their best interests for a higher offer.
Yet, they’re about to serve it up to Dart on a silver platter. Look at the facts.
Radio Silence…
Dividend gets cut?
€2B buyback nuke!
Dart absorbing through the mess.
And then amidst the 600 SEK purgatory, he crosses the line. 🤔
His patterns are borderline schizophrenic, but this doesn’t look random to me.
By letting management deploy €2 billion of the company’s own cash flow to retire the float at these prices, Dart didn't just accumulate 30%… He let the board subsidize his takeover for him!
Stock Invader’s New Takeover Bid Estimate? 1,000 SEK
Otherwise? No one other than Dart walks home a winner.
My Move?
It’s not exactly the fair 3,000 SEK me and my dad were hoping for…
But after everything Evolution shareholders have endured, 800 SEK feels insulting.
Legally, Dart can get away with it. The AGM authorized the buybacks, and as the largest shareholder he naturally benefits the most from every share Evolution removes.
I don’t have any spare cash sitting around waiting for opportunities.
So I’m just holding my current 21% portfolio position in Evolution. 💼
4 weeks. He’ll either sell and look stupid, or commit. ⏳
If this really is the end, if Evolution gets taken away for 800 SEK per share after years of patience, then this was not just a bad investment.
This was cursed. Worse than PayPal.
A company with absurd margins, dominant market position and billions in cash generation somehow became a gift for someone else…
SAD!
🛰 Signal LOST: End of transmission — INVADER out… 😔🍀1³⁰⁰⁰
Disclaimer: This post is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It reflects personal opinions and is not intended as financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Cision: https://news.cision.com/se/evolution
There is only one buyer, so there is only one price. The board's warrants are struck above 871 SEK, which tells you what they were hoping for, but hope doesn't produce a competing bid. Four weeks isn't enough time to find another buyer.
If it gets taken private I will cry. It's so hard to find amazing businesses like this one 😪