Evolution AB: The Silent Squeeze

Why Martin Carlesund’s "Radio Silence" is the perfect cover for a 30% power play.

Evolution AB:
Monopoly in Purgatory!

Radio Silence?

As the stock has been searching for a new low this winter, management has been gracing us with radio silence. Nice. Sentiment has been cooked for a while now, and while there’s plenty to talk about, their “discretion” is now starting to feel less like discipline and more like avoidance.

Evolution AB: Unbreakable Monopoly Crumbling?

In comparison if Tesla ever fell more than 45%, you’d already have Musk live-tweeting through the wreckage, most likely firing someone, blaming said-person and announcing a permanent sleepover within the gigafactory before the closing bell.

Here? Nothing.

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iGaming Paranoia

Typically when someone mentions Evolution AB it’s depicted as this “High-Growth Swedish Quality Compounder” with flawless fundamentals and priced to perfection. Then the 10-year chart shows up and the illusion gets shattered.

The reason I bought Evolution in the first place wasn’t really about the numbers or fundamentals. Those are indeed important but to be honest I don’t understand buying into an idea you don’t support only because the balance-sheet shows you something.

In that case it has to be something truly exceptional but that’s not usually the case. For instance people are hyping up ‘Celsius Energy’ as this mega-growth engine, as if they’ve never seen an energy drink before.

Evolution AB isn’t just a typical company boasting high-margins, it’s the apex of iGaming, that should mean something. Especially since it’s a platform model providing the infrastructure and IPs without even touching the rails! Marginal costs? Close to none.

However the ship won’t sail without a steady wind blowing which is basically the takeaway from Goldman Sachs which downgraded the whole sector and claimed that hotels would outperform it in the coming years. But NOT SO FAST!

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Entertainment is the Endgame

If we flip the table upside down… Would you be willing to bet against iGaming?

If I had to place the long-dated bet, I certainly would not. Why?

Because it would mean people suddenly stop seeking risk, spectacle and human interaction. My thinking is that if AI is believed to automate 90% of things eventually, the question isn’t what would disappear but rather what would remain?

Where would people show off their 5D chess moves?

If you could buy a future-dominant monopoly at 10x forward P/E, would you?

The rise of Polymarket proves this sectors is far from dead. However it has something Evolution does not; predictions with limitless narrative. Even so there is no reason these two can’t co-exist. I hope that Polymarket creates a demand which Evolution can later industrialize…

When there is uncertainty at play there is alpha to be found.

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The Company isn’t Acting Bearish…

If I am completely wrong about this then the actions being made this very second is either a massive mistake or just an unusual anomaly.

iGaming is so out of fashion that Evolution decides to expand globally and in doing so making every acquisition possible to gain the proper regulatory licenses to scale right now? Makes sense.

By acquiring Galaxy Gaming they essentially secured the regulatory licenses to own the American rails while also attaining their IPs in the process. With Mississippi unlocked and Nevada pending the U.S is set to explode.

Either way this solidifies a nice floor. EU is stagnant, Asia is compromised, Northern America is navigating regulations and Latin America is in its early stages.

If Q1 has literally anything going for it… it’s an easy 15%↑ uptick from todays prices. My dad literally said last month: If you enter here at ~650SEK range, you CANT lose money!” — guess who was wrong?

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The Dart Predicament

And as if management’s radio silence wasn’t enough, Dart has been eluding me personally for far too long. Word of him swallowing shares started back in 2024, when the stock price was almost double that of today’s levels.

Which begs the question: Where would the stock be without Dart?

Objectively having Dart at 25% is a massive signal, and people aren’t worried enough. Evolution has been doing aggressive share buybacks to “please” shareholders while the stock is tanking…

But Dart isn’t looking for a swing-trade. He’s casually waiting for the buyback engine to retire enough shares so that his position becomes a De Facto Majority and here is how:

Dart's Hostile Takeover:

• Dart’s Exposure: Dart (Candle Lake something) holds 47,870,198 shares directly (23.41%) plus a confirmed equity swap of 4,150,000 = total stake: 25.44%.

• Shrink-Ray: Total shares stand at 204,462,162, with buybacks authorized up to the 10% limit (20.4M shares).

• Time-bomb: Buybacks authorized to a maximum of 20,446,216 shares. Since October: they’ve been buying roughly 400,000 shares/week. If this continues 2026; 10M shares are erased by April.

By April the share pool will have shrunk so much that Dart’s holding crosses the 30% mandatory bid threshold automatically. The board is literally buying the company for him! And Carlesund? Probably the architect.

If I’m right? Carlesund should stand trail. Dad is already talking about reserving a courtroom for when it happens. Low-ball delisting? Not on my watch.

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My Move?

My portfolio is still 20% Evolution AB — not ONE single share sold.

Hostage situation ongoing. My shares developed Stockholm syndrome after I demanded they surge to 6,000SEK.

Point is: if this is a melting ice cube, then the buybacks, global expansion and Dart accumulation make no sense at all. None.

I’m growing tired of buying the dip, maybe there are no such things as catalysts, but the Dart predicament if anything comes close.

Dart didn’t accumulate to 25% to watch this bleed. The buybacks aren’t desperation… Either management delivers proof of life or Dart forces the issue.

Whatever happens I predict this resolves soon.

To be clear under Swedish law, a passive crossing doesn't trigger a bid... but the second Dart buys just ONE more share, the trap snaps shut.

Anyways I’m done trying to outsmart the market. Evolution AB is now a HOLD.

YOUR MOVE DART!

If Dart lowballs a takeover, he can ring the doorbell. Dad’s holding to 4,000SEK…

🛰 Signal LOST: End of transmission — INVADER out… 💀

Disclaimer: This post is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It reflects personal opinions and is not intended as financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.