Regarding Google, recently there's been this opinion about Gemini overtaking ChatGPT.
I found this post on X with the following caption:
"Gemini moved from 6% to 22% of GenAI web traffic in a year while ChatGPT dropped from 87% to 65% which to me shows user changing behavior. Gemini shows up where questions already live inside Search, Chrome, Android & Workspace so new AI usage does not require a new habit, a new app or a new URL but it simply shows up."
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But I wonder the real reason behind this rise in traffic could be something else. Gemini has offered 18 months of free* subscription to Pro for Indian users.
(UPDATE: Some clarifications on the Gemini Pro "free" offer. Not all Indians get Gemini Pro for free. People who use Jio (a telecom provider, the Indian equivalent of T-Mobile, Verizon ), get 18 months of access to Gemini Pro "including Gemini 3 Pro, 2TB Google One storage, NotebookLM, and advanced image/video generation via Nano Banana/Veo 3.1".
Jio has about 40-41% Market share in India, highest of any other telecom provider.)
And it's one of the largest markets. So the rise in traffic could simply be because of that.
So, it may not be because of Geminis superior tech or access to Search, Chrome, Android & Workspace. It's simply due to free subscriptions. In that case, there's a good chance that these numbers could drop once the free offering ends, given how price sensitive Indians are.
here in the west, particularly in the U.S microsoft office rules corporate world, apple's iOS dominates the consumer OS. it's completely different for the rest of the world. in india 95-97% of phones are Android, for them getting the Google One for free while free is nice i think it undersells the actual power-up this is for casual Android-users.
Gemini intergrated into every ecosystem, increasing space and NanoBanana + Veo... isn't just "pretty cool" it's almost a new MOAT.
i think the plan was to first integrate Gemini into the ecosystem to the extent that leaving it eventually as the free-trail expires is such a downgrade that they will pay once it's over... this was strategic, Google knew what they were doing.
ChatGPT remains the go-to for most i think because of superior interface, personalization (with their memory feature) and just habit. most people are unaware that Gemini/Claude/Grok/DeepSeek even exist.
Really sharp take on Google's durability, especially in this enviroment where everyone's fixated on AI hype. The Calico mention reminded me of a biotech investor I know who's always saying Alphabet is the most underpriced life extension bet in public markets. Most people dunno about these moonshot subsidiaries and just see search dominance, missing the compounding optionality underneath. When narrative shifts this hard, patient holders always win.
Regarding Google, recently there's been this opinion about Gemini overtaking ChatGPT.
I found this post on X with the following caption:
"Gemini moved from 6% to 22% of GenAI web traffic in a year while ChatGPT dropped from 87% to 65% which to me shows user changing behavior. Gemini shows up where questions already live inside Search, Chrome, Android & Workspace so new AI usage does not require a new habit, a new app or a new URL but it simply shows up."
-----
But I wonder the real reason behind this rise in traffic could be something else. Gemini has offered 18 months of free* subscription to Pro for Indian users.
(UPDATE: Some clarifications on the Gemini Pro "free" offer. Not all Indians get Gemini Pro for free. People who use Jio (a telecom provider, the Indian equivalent of T-Mobile, Verizon ), get 18 months of access to Gemini Pro "including Gemini 3 Pro, 2TB Google One storage, NotebookLM, and advanced image/video generation via Nano Banana/Veo 3.1".
Jio has about 40-41% Market share in India, highest of any other telecom provider.)
And it's one of the largest markets. So the rise in traffic could simply be because of that.
So, it may not be because of Geminis superior tech or access to Search, Chrome, Android & Workspace. It's simply due to free subscriptions. In that case, there's a good chance that these numbers could drop once the free offering ends, given how price sensitive Indians are.
great comment.
here in the west, particularly in the U.S microsoft office rules corporate world, apple's iOS dominates the consumer OS. it's completely different for the rest of the world. in india 95-97% of phones are Android, for them getting the Google One for free while free is nice i think it undersells the actual power-up this is for casual Android-users.
Gemini intergrated into every ecosystem, increasing space and NanoBanana + Veo... isn't just "pretty cool" it's almost a new MOAT.
i think the plan was to first integrate Gemini into the ecosystem to the extent that leaving it eventually as the free-trail expires is such a downgrade that they will pay once it's over... this was strategic, Google knew what they were doing.
ChatGPT remains the go-to for most i think because of superior interface, personalization (with their memory feature) and just habit. most people are unaware that Gemini/Claude/Grok/DeepSeek even exist.
but then again i could be wrong...
Really sharp take on Google's durability, especially in this enviroment where everyone's fixated on AI hype. The Calico mention reminded me of a biotech investor I know who's always saying Alphabet is the most underpriced life extension bet in public markets. Most people dunno about these moonshot subsidiaries and just see search dominance, missing the compounding optionality underneath. When narrative shifts this hard, patient holders always win.
thanks. appreciate your support. although calico have been mysteriously silent i trust they have something cooking. that’s just how google works…
Interesting analysis!